The US Federal Reserve cut interest rates by 0.25% on Wednesday. Many assume that lower rates always push stock prices higher. But history shows that rate cuts don’t always cause rallies. In fact, they have often signaled caution for stocks.

What history shows

The chart below tracks the S&P 500 (orange) against US interest rates (blue) since the 1990s.

Here’s what happened the last few times the Fed started cutting rates from past interest rate “peaks”:

• 1995 – stocks kept rallying into the dotcom bubble.
• 2000 – stocks dropped as the bubble burst.
• 2007 – stocks dropped into the 2008 financial crisis.
• 2019 – stocks rallied at first, then dropped into the Covid crash.

Each cycle had its own backdrop. In 1995, the internet boom kicked in, and interest rate cuts added fuel to the rally. In 2000, the Fed cut as tech valuations unwound – that mattered more than monetary policy. In 2007, the housing crash drove markets down, despite easier money. And in 2019, the economy was still expanding, but Covid hit months later.

And now in 2024/25, we’re potentially in a new cutting cycle. Stocks fell around 20% into early 2025, but have since rebounded to new highs. Since the Fed’s recent cut on Wednesday, the S&P 500 is up slightly – but it’s only been a few days. Time will tell how rate cuts affect stocks leading into this year end.

What rate cuts mean for IncomeShares investors

For IncomeShares investors, the key point is that rate cuts influence both sides of return:

• Price return – Several IncomeShares ETPs hold exposure to US stocks. If stocks rise or fall, that affects the net asset value.
• Income – periods of uncertainty can increase volatility. Higher volatility can lift option premiums, which may increase the income potential of our ETPs.

So while rate cuts don’t guarantee a stock market rally, they may still create opportunities for option-based income strategies.

Long-dated US Treasury bonds are typically highly sensitive to interest rate movements. Read this article on the investment case for TLT to understand that relationship.