
Author
Jonathan Hobbs, CFA
Date
20 Feb 2025
Category
Market Insights
Gold’s Seven-Week Streak: Momentum or Warning Sign?
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What does all this mean for gold? Here’s what the data suggests.
Gold’s rare multi-week rallies
Gold has seen multi-week winning streaks before. Each time, it eventually reversed course, with pullbacks ranging from 5% to 45%.
- August 2020: Gold gained for nine straight weeks, then dropped 22% over the next two years.
- August 2011: After seven weeks up, gold fell 45% over the next four years.
- January 2002: An eight-week run led to an 18% drop in just nine weeks.
The table below shows the times gold saw seven or more weeks of upside in a row, dating back 25 years. Based on the data (TradingView, ticker: GOLD US$/OZ), gold’s average correction was 16.9% over 42 weeks. Of course, there are no guarantees gold will follow the same pattern this time.


Gold’s volatility is picking up
From a technical perspective, another key factor is rising volatility. Gold is currently hugging the top Bollinger Band on the weekly chart (below). Bollinger Bands measure volatility relative to a 20-week simple moving average (middle band). When the bands expand, it indicates higher volatility.

Right now, gold is near the upper band – meaning volatility is rising to the upside. While this can signal strength, it can also lead to short-term swings in price. High volatility isn’t always sustainable.
Why is gold running?
Several macro factors could be driving gold’s rally:
- Central bank demand: China and other central banks have been buying gold aggressively, adding steady demand.
- Inflation concerns: Sticky inflation and policy risks have investors looking for hedges.
- Geopolitical uncertainty: Ongoing global tensions have increased the demand for safe-haven assets like gold.
These factors are keeping gold elevated, but that doesn’t mean there won’t be corrections.
Gold and Income Options ETPs
Options-based income strategies can provide a different way to gain exposure to gold while generating potential yield. The IncomeShares Gold+ Yield ETP seeks to provide partial upside exposure to gold while generating monthly income by selling out-of-the-money call options on the SPDR® Gold Shares ETF.
Key takeaways
- Gold’s seven-week rally is rare. Historically, similar streaks have often been followed by pullbacks.
- Upside volatility is increasing, as gold trades near the upper Bollinger Band.
- Macro factors may support gold, but income-focused strategies can help manage volatility.
Your capital is at risk if you invest. You could lose all your investment. Please see the full risk warning here.
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